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The lower "Window" has acted as support, but there isn't any bullish pattern so far. However, we could have a local upward correction, but bears are likely going to continue to push the price even lower afterwards.
The price is still declining, but there's a bullish "Hammer" at the local low. Meanwhile, this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet, so there's an option to have just a local correction. Therefore, we're likely going to have another decline pretty soon.
TRADING PLAN FOR NOVEMBER 16
14:23 15.11.2017
The US dollar index (DXY) declined below 93.50 on Wednesday. The USD was pressured by the decline of the US Treasury yields. American data came out mixed on Wednesday: there was a slight increase in core CPI growth rate, but wages remained soft. Next support for DXY lies at 93.05 (October 19 low). The US will release unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index at 15:30 MT time and industrial production at 04:15 MT time on Thursday.
EUR/USD rose above 1.1800 for the first time in 3 weeks. Demand for the euro rose as investors resumed buying European equities and the region’s economic figures remain strong. Resistance is at October high of 1.1880 and 1.1910.
GBP/USD is hesitating around 1.3170 after the release of the UK labor market figures. Wage growth exceeded forecast a bit, although the inactivity rate – a number of people not working or seeking job – rose by most in nearly 8 weeks. The release of retail sales on Thursday is the next important event in British economic calendar at 11:30 MT time. In addition, the market will await comments from the Bank of England’s governor Carney during the day. On the upside, the pair’s limited by resistance line from September highs at 1.3210. Support is in 1.3090 area (support line since February) ahead of 1.3000 (psychological level).
AUD/USD fell as Australian wage price index disappointed. The Aussie found support at 0.7575 (long-term support line). Attempts to recover will face resistance at 0.7625 (previous support), 0.7650. On Thursday, Australia will release labor market figures at 02:30 MT time.
On the daily chart, EUR/JPY reached the targets of “Wolfe waves” pattern. A break of diagonal resistance at 2-4 increased risks of an uptrend’s resumption. To reach targets at 161.8% and 224% of AB=CD the pair should renew November high.
On H1, EUR/JPY formed “Wolfe waves” and “Deep Shark”. Correction to 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the wave CD are usually used for forming long positions as the Shark is transforming into 5-0.
Buy — 1.1790; SL — 1.1770; TP1 — 1.1850; TP2 – 1.1880
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising lines; the prices are made a new highs and corrected to the support of Tenkan-sen.
Sell — 1.3100; SL — 1.3120; TP1 — 1.3050; TP2 — 1.3010.
Buy — 1.3150; SL — 1.3130; TP1 — 1.3260; TP2 — 1.3300.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are inside of a Cloud and under pressure of SSB’s resistance.
The price faced with resistance at 1.1857, so there's a "V-Top" pattern, which pushed the pair to the nearest support at 1.1767 - 1.1743. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards another resistance at 1.1836 - 1.1857.
There's a "Double Top" pattern, but the market faced with support at 1.1767, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we could have an upward price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.1804 - 1.1820. However, if a pullback from these levels happens afterwards, there'll be time for a decline towards the closest support at 1.1767 - 1.1742.
There's a "Thorn" pattern, so the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3150 - 1.3109. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3182 - 1.3238.
The price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Also, there's a "Thorn" pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.3150 - 1.3153. This area could be a departure point for another upward price movement.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY broke the lower border of a rising triangle and then retested it. This was a sign that bears attacked. Sellers tested support at 113 and are trying to fix below it. If they succeed, risks of reaching 88.6% target of a “Shark” pattern will increase.
On H1, USD/JPY is forming “Wolfe waves” pattern. To trigger it the pair needs a convincing test of resistance at 113.25. The inverted “Crab” pattern with a target at 161.8% will be also triggered.
There's a developing bullish impulse in wave [i]. Previously, we had a zigzag in wave 4, which means we could have another upward rally. If a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens little later on, there'll be time for a bearish correction.
6/8 MM Level acted as resistance, so wave (iii) has been ended. Currently, the price is declining in wave (iv). If a pullback from the 34 Moving Average happens during the day, bulls are likely going to deliver another upward impulse in wave (v) of [i].
There's a "Hammer", which has stopped the last bearish rally. Considering yesterday's "Engulfing" pattern, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the Moving Averages in the short term
The price has reached the 34 Moving Average, but there isn't any reversal pattern for now. So, bulls are likely going to test the upper "Window", which could be a departure point for a short-term decline.