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Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4011, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3895 - 1.3834. This area could be a departure point for an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3944 - 1.4011.
There's a developing bearish correction, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.3834 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level is on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve another resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4089.
THE STABILITY OF THE BOJ POLICY
10:42 23.01.2018
Today is the day of the Bank of Japan meeting. The BOJ announced its Outlook Report. The key point is that the Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged. This meeting showed almost solid consent - eight to one member voted to leave interest rates at the same level of -0.1%. At the same time, the members claimed that quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) with yield curve control (YCC) program will be continued. The Bank is promising to buy Japanese government bonds so that 10-year JGB yields will remain around 0%. The Bank is going to “continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI exceeds 2% and stays above the target in a stable manner”.
So the BOJ claims that it is going to continue with the current loose policy. However, there are speculations around this report, investors are expecting policy normalization soon. We can see it on a USD/JPY pair 4-hours chart. Despite the news about the unchanged Japanese monetary policy, USD/JPY is falling, the lowest price from the time of the announcement was 110.63.
Technical analysis shows that USD/JPY is dangerously close to the support line from the 2016 low in 110 area. Very close to this area there is 100-week MA. These strong support levels will hold initial selling pressure. On the upside, the main obstacle is at 111.70 (200-day MA, 50-week MA).
There's an "Engulfing" pattern, which has been formed at the last high. So, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.
The 55 Moving Average acted as support, so there's a "High Wave" pattern. In this case, we could have a local upward correction. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the 89 MA afterwards.
There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term.
The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a "Harami" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours.
There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward impulse in wave [v] of 5 in the coming days. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.
As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible triangle in wave [iv]. If correct, wave [v] is going to begin anytime soon.
There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward impulse in wave [v] of 5 in the coming days. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.
As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible triangle in wave [iv]. If correct, wave [v] is going to begin anytime soon.
There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term.
The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a "Harami" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours.
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Buy — 1.2310/20; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2390; TP2 — 1.2430
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are supported by Cloud, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and a market is ready to go higher.