EURUSD

The Euro holds negative near-term tone, following last week’s sharp fall and hovers above fresh lows, in a narrow consolidation, capped so far under initial 1.38 resistance. Negative hourly studies and 4-hour indicators probing below the midlines, maintain near-term pressure and see risk of penetration of recent lows, reinforced by 100SMA, to open psychological 1.37 support and key 1.3670 higher low, reinforced by broken bear-trendline off 1.3965 previous peak, in extension. Loss of the latter would further weaken the structure, as formation of double-top pattern may trigger stronger pullback and put larger bulls on hold. Daily indicators’ attempts below their midlines support the notion. Alternative scenario requires break above initial 1.38 barrier and 1.3940 lower top / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3992/1.3744 fall, to ease immediate bear pressure, while regain of 1.39 handle is required to re-focus the upper targets.


Res: 1.3773; 1.3800; 1.3840; 1.3868
Sup: 1.3744; 1.3720; 1.3700, 1.3670






GBPUSD

Cable remains at the back foot in the near term, after recovery attempt from fresh low at 1.6829, run out of steam at initial 1.69 barrier. Near-term technicals are negatively aligned and keep the downside at risk, while the price holds below 1.69 handle. Fresh weakness through 1.6821, previous high and psychological 1.68 support, also near 38.2% retracement of 1.6464/.6995 ascend, is required to confirm reversal and open 1.6760 higher platform and 1.6730, rally’s mid-point. Conversely, sustained break above 1.69 barrier, would bring bulls fully in play and signal an end of near-term corrective phase, for fresh attempt towards psychological 1.7000 resistance.


Res: 1.6900; 1.6932; 1.6973; 1.6995
Sup: 1.6861; 1.6829; 1.6800; 1.6760





USDJPY

The pair regained strength and eventually broke through 102 barrier, extending near-term recovery off 101.40 higher base. Neat-term studies turned positive and keep further upside favored for now, with next targets laying at 102.70, mid-point of 104.11/101.31 fall/ daily cloud top and 103, range top. Clear break of the latter is required to break above 101.20/103 congestion and resume recovery. Otherwise, further range trading would likely near-term scenario. However, still negative daily studies keep the downside at risk, as long as the price remains below 103 handle.

Res: 102.40; 102.70; 103.00; 103.38
Sup: 101.42; 101.84; 101.60; 101.45





AUDUSD

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates under fresh highs near 0.94 barrier. Recovery rally from 0.92 base, so far retraced nearly 76.4% of the pullback from 0.9460 to 0.9204. Daily cup-and-holder pattern hasn’t been completed yet, with clear break above 0.9380 required to confirm and open way for final push towards key 0.9460 barrier, 10 Apr high. The overall picture remains bullish, as near-term price action is underpinned by double bull-cross at 0.9150 zone; 20/200 and 55/200SMA’s, however, further hesitation ahead of 0.94 hurdle cannot be ruled out, as hourly studies are losing traction, with loss of psychological / trendline support at 0.93 to further delay bulls, while only loss of 0.92 handle would revive bears. Conversely, break above 0.9460 top to confirm bullish resumption and open psychological 0.95 barrier next.


Res: 0.9365; 0.9384; 0.9393; 0.9424
Sup: 0.9317; 0.9300; 0.9250; 0.9200

Concordo com as análises e continuo Short no EURUSD e GBPUSD.

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