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Buy — 1.4280; SL — 1.4260; TP1 — 1.4390; TP2 — 1.4470.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices returned into the positive area and may continue uptrend.
On the daily chart of EUR/USD, there’s a sustainable uptrend. Bulls are getting ready to test a 3-year high to reach 200% target of AB=CD. Failure or inability to fix above 1.2535 will be the first signal of buyers’ weakness.
On H1, EUR/USD bulls have to fear the formation of a “Widening wedge”. For that the euro needs to decline below $1.2335. Aggressive sell position is possible at the low of the bar #2.
On the daily chart of EUR/GBP, bears failed with their attack on the support of the lower border of the medium-term consolidation range of 0.8690-0.9015. Sellers retain hopes for a break and formation of the AB=CD pattern.
On H1, a break above resistance levels at 0.8780 and 0.8810 will increase the risks of triggering Gartley pattern with a target at 78.6% of the wave XA. From this area (0.8870-0.8880), there is a high possibility of aggressive selling by large players.
EUR/GBP: BULLS RETREAT, BUT DON’T GIVE UP
07:42 02.02.2018
Recommendation:
SELL 0.8875
SL 0.893
TP1 0.8775 TP2 0.8715 TP3 0.869
On the daily chart of EUR/GBP, bears failed with their attack on the support of the lower border of the medium-term consolidation range of 0.8690-0.9015. Sellers retain hopes for a break and formation of the AB=CD pattern.
On H1, a break above resistance levels at 0.8780 and 0.8810 will increase the risks of triggering Gartley pattern with a target at 78.6% of the wave XA. From this area (0.8870-0.8880), there is a high possibility of aggressive selling by large players.
The main trend is still bullish. It's likely that the market is going to reach the next resistance at 1.2537 - 1.2569 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2456 - 1.2384.
The pair is consolidating between the levels 1.2537 - 1.2493. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2537 - 1.2569.
The price is still rising above the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.4344. If a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.4206 - 1.4129.
Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4284, so the market is going to test the 89 Moving Average. This line could be a departure point for an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.4327 - 1.4344.
The US usually releases labour market data on the first Friday of a month. This time this tradition won’t change. America will publish Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate and average earnings at 15:30 MT time on February 2.
Take into consideration two more important indicators about US labour market:
1⃣ Unemployment Rate.
2⃣ Average Hourly Earnings.
This may be a great chance to trade the greenback as the currency will likely move with great swings. Traders will buy on strong data from the US and sell if American figures disappoint.
FolloW these events on the FBS Economic Calendar [url]https://goo.gl/MyaEL7[/url]
Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls at 15:30 MT time. Nonfarm Payrolls count the change in the number of employed during the previous month. The data is important because it displays consumer spending and economic health. The advantage of the indicator is that it is delivered shortly after the month ends. It is announced together with two other indicators such as Average hourly earnings and Unemployment rate.
Nowadays, we can notice that the indicator is not as important as it was before. During the financial crisis, numbers of it were highly taken into consideration because of its main function as a measure of the economic health. However, now the economy is quite firm, it does not require additional supportive indicators. But still, the data support interest rates hikes. This year the Fed is expected to increase interest rates three times. So a market follows changes in the labor market. A tighter market causes wages rise. Wages increase will boost the interest rates.
Although it is almost impossible to forecast Nonfarm Payrolls data, analysts do not give up.
This time, analysts are divided into two camps.
For example, analysts of Nomura and Goldman Sachs predict 205K rise.
On the other hand, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation makes its prediction based on the temperature. It claimed that the drop in average temperatures across the country may cause the fall of job creation for the month. So its expectations are at the level of 170K. The Australian Bank Westpac agrees with HSBC, maybe the reason for the number is different, but the number is the same. Toronto-Dominion Securities is not far from them, it is looking for 175K.
Making a conclusion, we can say that despite the fact that the Nonfarm Payrolls data is not used as much as it was during the financial crisis, it is still a crucial indicator, for the Fed policy especially. Its volatility is still incredible, that creates difficulties for forecasts. October data of -33K was followed by 261K in November, the data delivered in December was quite similar to previous one, but the next one was in 80K less. However, the data is still taken into consideration and always supported by two other indicators that smooth its volatility.
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The market has been rising since a "Tweezers" model formed on the 34 Moving Average. There's no any reversal pattern so far, which means the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area in the short term.
There's a bullish "Hammer", which has been formed at the last local low. So, the price is likely going to continue moving up in the coming hours.
