Bem vindos ao Fórum do Portal BolsaPT! Inscrevam-se e participem na nossa comunidade, poderão pedir opiniões e Análises Técnicas às vossas acções, colocar dúvidas, aprender, partilhar ideias, ajudar outros, etc. Além das cotações, gráficos, análise técnica interactiva, históricos, terão simulação de carteiras, alarmes, e muito mais virá no futuro. Lembre-se que se pode logar com o seu login CanalForex!
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE ECB MEETING?
08:37 25.01.2018
Today we are waiting for the news from the European Central Bank. The ECB press conference will be held at 15:30 MT time.
It is worth to say that last time in December the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged. So let’s see what we can expect from this meeting.
Most of the economists suppose that the ECB will not change the monetary policy again because of an obstacle - the continuing quantitative easing that it promised to hold until September 2018. However, we can say that this time the most interesting part of the conference is not interest rates, but comments of the bank President. First of all, Mario Draghi will face a huge number of questions over how fast the central bank is going to change its policy. Secondly, his address and comments will affect the EUR/USD pair. The pair was rising since the beginning of 2017 and recently achieved a new 3-year high. Such growth creates worries for the ECB because continuing rise of the currency is not good for the economy. That is why the ECB should gradually shift its stance to avoid a more destructive move in the future. And it is what economists are waiting from Draghi, they expect him to announce gradual policy changes. Although no one expects immediate changes in the ECB policy, traders will pay a lot of attention to the speech of the President. During the conference, the single currency will be vulnerable.
As for numbers, analysts from Danske Bank forecast the fall of the single currency to 1.20 in short-term, but not lower. However, it is expected to surge to 1.28 by the end of the year, if only inflation will grow to 2%.
So we can say that the ECB monetary policy will likely stay stable but the conference will affect the EUR/USD pair a lot. Considering future, economists are looking for policy changes in March/April meetings.
On the daily chart, EUR/JPY is consolidating in the 135.00-136.40 area. A break of its upper border will increase the odds of advance to 127.2% of AB=CD pattern. The nearest support level is near 134.30.
On H1, EUR/JPY is retesting the neckline of “Head and Shoulders”. A break below correction low will allow bears to count on the continuation of a pullback. On the other hand, advance above 136.20 will increase the risks of uptrend’s resumption.
On the daily chart, a return of the pair inside the downtrend channel shows that bears have total control. Never the less, there may be a small pullback from 78.6% and 88.6% of the wave XA of the “Bat” pattern.
On H1, a pullback of USD/JPY from 200% target of AB=CD with the following formation of Anti-Turtles will signal potential correction. For a start, bulls have to push the pair above 109.45.
Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2456, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2358 - 1.2322. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500.
There's a "V-Top" pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.2358. This level could be a departure point for a bullish price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500.
The main trend is still bullish, but the pair faced resistance at 1.4331, so there's an opportunity to have a downward correction towards the nearest support at 1.4129 - 1.4089. If we have a pullback from this area little later on, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.4386 - 1.4433.
We've got a "V-Top" pattern, which has been formed at the last local high. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.4195 - 1.4129. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives afterwards, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.4386 - 1.4433.
There're a "High Wave" and a "Harami" patterns, which have been formed at the last high. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.
We've got a "Three Black Crows" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, we should keep an eye on the 55 Moving Average as an intraday bearish target.
There's still no any reversal pattern so far, which means the price is likely going to continue declining towards the lower "Window". If any bullish pattern forms little later on, there'll be a moment to have an upward correction
We've got a bearish "Engulfing", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. So, there's an opportunity to have a local bearish correction in the coming hours. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the next support area afterwards.
WHY THE DOLLAR FELL SO LOW?
11:29 25.01.2018
We are seeing the fall of the US dollar since the end of December 2017, but US Treasury secretaries preferred to say little about it until this Wednesday.
The US made the biggest fall since December 2014 when the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed on Wednesday that “a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade”. The Secretary made his comment in Davos, Switzerland during the World Economic Forum, where a lot of people are waiting for the Donald Trump’s address
What did he really say? Mnuchin said that a cheaper dollar increases export demand. And he is right. Mnuchin claimed that the US wants fair economic competition and reciprocal trade. Tax cuts make the US more attractive for investments. He believes that where the dollar is in short-term reflects a very liquid market, but the long-term level will support the strength of the economy.
However, despite positive comments about the US policy, the market reacted to the confirmation of dollar weakness and the dollar fell losing 0.8% against the Euro.
But we cannot say that Mnuchin’s words were crucial for the USD. We should not forget that overseas economic growth and shifting perceptions of monetary policy have been causing the dollar weakness as well. So the fall was expected but maybe not at such rate.
Summing up the Secretary’s statement, we can suppose that the US will not act to strengthen the dollar now. However, it is important to remember that depreciation adds pressure on inflation. So the Fed will have to take it under control. But if inflation rises, the Fed will have to tighten its monetary policy and it will change the US dollar rate.
GBP/USD: MAIN TARGET IS CLOSEST SUPPORT
10:06 25.01.2018
The main trend is still bullish, but the pair faced resistance at 1.4331, so there's an opportunity to have a downward correction towards the nearest support at 1.4129 - 1.4089. If we have a pullback from this area little later on, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.4386 - 1.4433.
We've got a "V-Top" pattern, which has been formed at the last local high. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.4195 - 1.4129. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives afterwards, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.4386 - 1.4433.
EUR/USD: "V-TOP" PATTERN LED TO DECLINE
10:01 25.01.2018
Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2456, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2358 - 1.2322. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500.
There's a "V-Top" pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.2358. This level could be a departure point for a bullish price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500.
