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EURO, FRANC AND GOLD SET FOR MORE UPSIDE…MORE DOLLAR WEAKNESS AHEAD…? WEEKLY REPORT
EURUSD
Seems like but only after breaking out the 1.3284/1.3296 area. Last week was quite a roller coaster with several support/resistance breaking attempts but neither bulls nor bears made it happen. On hourly chart we also had something looking like SHS price formation but after failed break lower through 1.3145/50 area price spiked higher and broke “right shoulder” which was clearly bullish sign. As we closed close to weekly heights around 1.3284 it will be harder for bears to renew selling. Should the market open with gap higher but below 1.3290 area then bears may be trying to close the gap and testing support at 1.3240 – otherwise bulls should be the more active ones. Bias all the time remains to the upside despite all euro zone worries and debt issues…
Swiss franc from some time already is like mirror reflection of EURUSD price action. When market drives euro towards new heights, USDCHF goes to test new support areas. This type of correlation was seen for quite some time especially now that EURCHF came back to “dead zone” just 40 pips above the famous 1.2000 peg. The technical outlook is not so dollar-positive. Should the support area at 0.9070/80 be broken then further fall towards 0.9000 psychological level may be continued. If bulls want to take over the market in upcoming days they should breakout 0.9175/80 resistance zone. After that test of area around 0.9255 and 0.9335 is possible.
Cable also had mixed week during which tested strong resistance around 1.5900/15 area and support around 1.5770 and 1.5820 levels. While the trend support line holds, bulls may sleep well – especially if 1.5915 snaps… potential stop area could be as high as 1.5992 Should we observe more dollar buying then next potential support zone lays at around 1.5740 and lower at 1.5620.
There is really nothing more to say about this pair for now more than the chart says itself … The only reasonable strategy that worked already 3 times after peg was established is to buy EURCHF the day before SNB has its meeting (in expectations for peg to be put higher) and sell it on the following day (as all the hopes and expectations for SNB to ack failed once again…) We broke some trend support line but in this moment I believe people are more concerned with 1.2000 level itself than with some minor trend lines.
Situation on this pair does not look too interesting for market bulls. On Thursday we managed to break down through channel support line at 131.15/30. After that quick retest of the level occurred and further drop continued moving the price to strong support at 130.10/20 area. Important technically is that we retested the ex-support area – now resistance – at 131.55 and bounced back right from there going again to support at 130.10. If in upcoming week bears manage to break mentioned support, sell-off may continue towards new lows at 128.22 where lays support from 12th and 13th March. If on the other hand support holds and bulls manage to come back to the uptrend channel, then way towards 132.25 and 133.47 is opened.
Unlike British pound, euro denominated in Japanese yen managed to hold very important support trend line at 109.05 and lower at local support at 108.69. We may consider current EURJPY situation perfect BUY opportunity because price touches channel’s lower support trend line but having in mind what happened with USDJPY should put yellow light in front of our eyes. The truth is that USDJPY tested without success 61,8% Fibonacci’s retracement at 81.96 and bounced up again but while we are below 83.18/28 area things are not looking good there. So be careful and do not enter too fast because you think it may be perfect buy opportunity (while in fact it may soon be good selling opportunity).
Last week was a week of real battle between bulls and bears in Aussie market. After initial breakdown of 1.0383 strong support line we went as low as to 200-SMA located at 1.0333 after which quick rebound occurred leading price towards 1.0500. Finally we ended up at 1.0464. The daily and weekly close above 1.0383 support is medium term important bullish event and also gives more upside potential towards 1.0588, 1.0640 and end of February height at 1.0855. Price action here will also depend on the way GOLD performs but there is great chance for bigger bounce up as well.
During the week I posted few times narrowing trend channel (or falling wedge for those who like to call it this way). We managed to test its strong resistance at 32.96 USD per ounce and later on its support at 31.09 USD per ounce. Finally we ended up at exact resistance line at 32.19 USD. If we take closer look at RSI(14) we will notice that each time price approached towards resistance line, market decided to go back down following test of 50 area at RSI itself. Each time we tested support level RSI tested areas below 30. If the breakout comes on the price chart and RSI, we may have some stronger buy signal. If on the other hand resistance holds again, test of 30.52 area is possible. Bullish scenario assumes test of 32.96 and 33.50 area where 200-SMA is placed. Eventually price may go as high as 34.37 USD per ounce.
ANALISE SEMANAL -
