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On the daily chart, EUR/GBP continues its medium-term consolidation in the 0.8700-0.9015 area. A break of its lower border will increase the odds of the pair’s getting to 200% target of AB=CD. On the other hand, advance above the resistance at 0.9015 will help to resume the uptrend.
On H1, EUR/GBP reached 88.6% target of an inverted “Bat”. To continue the decline, bears need to pull the pair below 0.8715.
WEEKLY REPORT: GBP/USD
11:36 09.02.2018
This week was shaking for the cable. At the beginning of the week, the pound continued the Friday’s downward trend.
However, it little changed ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting. Although the BOE kept interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.5%, hawkish sounding statements of the Governor made the pound rise. Mark Carney said that they are returning to targeting inflation at the two-year horizon. That is why they may raise the interest rate earlier than planned before. It caused the rally of the pound, and it could achieve the level of 1.4065 after the last close at 1.3875. However, the candle could not close at that height and fell to close at 1.3900.
The bullish trend of GBP could not fix because doubts about the Brexit deal still prevail. In addition, the significant plunge of the Dow Johns Index affected the pound as well.
The GBP/USD is moving in a horizontal trading channel between 1.3835 and 1.4000. They are support and resistance for the pair in a short-term. The next support is at 1.3741, resistance at 1.4070.
Next week traders should take into consideration CPI data that will be released on Tuesday, February 13, and Retail Sales announcement on Friday, February 16, both at 11:30 MT time.
The spectacular decline of US stocks was the biggest event of last week. Dow Jones experienced a record fall: it lost more than 1,000 points in one day.
The US dollar took its chance to recover. Traders fear that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates faster than expected. This may hurt profits of American companies, but boosts demand for the cheap dollar.
The USD index managed to return above 90.00 and has some chance for stabilization. Resistance is at 91.00.
Investors took profit on their bullish EUR/USD positions, and the pair slid by 1.4%. It has to rise above 1.2345 to resume uptrend. Decline below 1.2220 will open the way down to 1.2125 and 1.2080, although we think that the euro should be more or less stable given the euro area’s strong economy.
GBP/USD also corrected down last week. The Bank of England offered the pound a positive boost. It raised the UK economic forecasts and said that interest rates probably needed to rise sooner and faster than it had previously thought. However, the general market selloff affected the pound, and GBP/USD failed to stay above 1.40. Support is at 1.38 and 1.3665. Yet, fundamentals have improved and the pair may try to resume uptrend after some consolidation.
Australian and New Zealand dollars suffered because of the market’s risk aversion and the fact that central banks of these nations don’t plan to raise interest rates. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD recovered by the end of the week, but still closed below the weekly moving averages.
Forex economic calendar for the coming days includes UK inflation figures on Tuesday, and US consumer inflation and retail sales on Wednesday. The flash European GDP figures will always be released in the middle of the week. Australian employment and US PPI will come out on Thursday and the speech of the RBA governor together with British retail sales and the US building permits are awaited on Friday.
The price has reached the lower "Window" once again, so we've got a pullback from this area. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" and the Moving Averages.
There's a "High Wave" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to test the Moving Averages, which could be a departure point for another bearish price movement.
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EUR/USD: EURO STARTED TO SSA
06:01 13.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2230, 1.2270; resistance – 1.2350, 1.2400.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 1.2300; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2400; TP2 — 1.2450
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with raising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with narrowing channel; the prices are supported by Senkou Span B and going to upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud.
Sell — 1.3860/70; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into negative area.
On the daily chart, USD/CAD the inability of bulls to return the pair inside the previous consolidation range of 1.2670-1.2895 was the first signal of their weakness.
On H1, if USD/CAD breaks below support at 1.2560 and 1.2490, the risks of the pair getting to 88.6% of the junior “Shark” pattern. To continue rising and reach 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern, the pair has to convincingly rise above resistance at 1.2665.
On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls manage to hold off an enemy attack at the $1,306-1,308.50 support. Another test of this area in case of success will increase the possibility of a pullback to $1273 and lower. The condition necessary for the uptrend’s resumption is a convincing break of resistance at $1350 an ounce.
On H1, much will depend on bulls’ ability to lead the pair outside of descending channel.
